Handicapping Part Two
As I stated in Handicapping Part One, I firmly believe that one can make long-term profits wagering on Thoroughbred Racing. There are, of course, many factors to be considered when undertaking such a challenge. You will notice that this is my second post about handicapping that does not contain any actual handicapping information. That is, I have not yet addressed the actual process of selecting horses. It might seem that picking winners is the most important part of this game, but I believe it is actually less than 50% of the game. There are larger challenges to be conquered. And, the largest of these is money management.
It does a horseplayer no good at all to be able to choose horses effectively if he cannot also manage his money properly. Simply having an idea of a race’s outcome is not enough. An entire strategy of wagering needs to be not only deployed, but adhered to. And, adhering to it might be the most difficult part of all.
How many times at the end of a bankroll-shrinking day do you look around and say, “What happened? Most of my main picks won, yet I still lost money?” This can be caused by sloppy wagering, overbetting or underbetting, or having no plan at all.
Or, does this sound familiar? “How did I lose $200? I didn’t have a single solid pick all day?” This is caused by the very same problems as before. So, it is easy to see that picking winners is not enough. One MUST have a plan and the discipline to stick to it.
So, what is that plan? There is no set answer here. I will tell you that sticking to your plan is every bit as important as having one. Wild and aimless betting in the face of success or desperation is the surest way to ruin. As they say in more traditional endeavors, “Plan your work and work your plan.”
My plan is to take the approach of growing my bankroll. That sounds a little too obvious, though. Who doesn’t want their bankroll to grow? It is all in the approach. Some take the road of forever looking for the “big score” hoping that it will come to them before their bankroll is gone. I take a more conservative and intensely disciplined approach.
While betting a set percentage of my bankroll on each wager (no more, no less), I am able to ride out the inevitable losing streaks while maximizing the equally inevitable winning streaks. As the bankroll grows and shrinks, so do the wagers. During a losing streak, the wagers continue to shrink to stay at the appropriate percentage so as to protect the bankroll. During winning times, the wagers rise with the bankroll to maximize earning power. In a not-so-coincidental way, this approach mimics compound interest. Provided the long-term direction is up, the bankroll can grow wildly.
I learned of this approach after many years of searching by listening to the wisdom of others, those have gone before me. Thanks to the good people at PaceAdvantage, I have been able to develop an approach I can live with, while still enjoying the game and taking advantage of my personal strengths.
As I said, picking winners is not enough. It does help, though! We’ll discuss some of those strategies here and there. I cannot spill all my beans, though. After all, it is still pari mutuel wagering…
