Full of Run

This game was never meant to be easy. I mean, you find a horse you love, tell all your friends, and Whammo! - He draws post 20. That’s 20 of 20, the outside, 20 wide, practically in the stands. That having been said, I still think he wins in a romp. I think he’s that good. His name is Big Brown.

So, here is my take on who I believe are the main contenders for the 134th Kentucky Derby. You may take them with however many grains of salt you wish.

1. BIG BROWN 3-1 - The undefeated winner of the Florida Derby owns the highest speed figures in the field. Like Curlin before him he will attempt to win the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts. His particular lack of seasoning may not matter; he has the natural speed to overcome it. He may very well lead every step, but the important thing to remember is that he doesn’t have to. He can be rated off the lead and uncoil at any time. Saturday night, the world may look back on Derby 134 and say, “How could we have thought it would be any other way?”

2. PYRO 6-1 - There are two reasons Pyro will not be the favorite in the Derby. Big Brown is the first, and Pyro’s own dismal Blue Grass Stakes is the second. If, like me, you believe throwing out his flop on Keeneland’s Polytrack is proper, then Pyro is another standout. If it wasn’t for his loss in Lexington, he’d be co-favorite with Big Brown. In his first two starts this year, Pyro ran visually impressive, but slow races. In the Risen Star he exploded past the leaders after they set a very slow pace. That is a very difficult thing to do normally, and even more so at the Fair Grounds.

3. SMOOTH AIR 20-1 - I love this story. A 70 year old trainer has his first Derby horse, and after reporters were asking him questions outside his barn, his daughter had to explain to him that he had just held a press conference. He is old school and so are his methods. He refers to Smooth Air as his “little horse” and is happy to tell how he decides on feeding by studying his stool (the horse’s stool, that is). Probably the fittest horse in the field, he was second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby and was a full 7 1/2 lengths in front of third place.

4. TALE OF EKATI 15-1 - Winner of the Wood Memorial, trained by Derby winner Barclay Tagg, and out of a Sunday Silence mare, he could be dangerous. He seems to get into trouble, which is almost a guarantee in a 20 horse field, yet he’s a trier. He is making his third start of the year and could be sitting on a big effort.

5. DENIS OF CORK 20-1 - Probably mismanaged by his connections, he still managed to make the field. Oddly, I was not a fan of this horse until he LOST the Illinois Derby. Everyone will tell you that he is distanced challenged, but I disagree. He looks the part and is working beautifully.

6. GAYEGO 15-1 - The only horse to have adequately answered the synthetic to dirt question, and he did it stylishly. It takes a lot for me to back a California horse. I haven’t done that since Alysheba in 1987.

OTHERS TO BEWARE - Z Fortune and Adriano.