I am sure it will never come up. But, just in case it does, I hope somebody reminds me NOT to play poker with Steve Asmussen or Jess Jackson.
Asmussen is the master of understatement. I remember last year during the Triple Crown a reporter asked him if Curlin was the best horse he had ever trained. “That would be an accurate statement,” he replied. And as to what makes Curlin special he said, “He runs faster than they do.” Here’s a guy who I am sure is aware that he may never even see, let alone train, a horse of this caliber again. I’d be jumping out of my skin shouting from the mountain tops, and Asmussen is cool as can be.
There are a lot of romantic sayings about horses. For example, “Nothing is as good for the inside of a man than the outside of a horse.” Or the old Arabian proverb, “The wind of Heaven blows between a horse’s ears.” To me, though, the most moving thing I have ever heard about a horse was said on ESPN, of all places. It was during its “Sports Century” series, which included an episode about Secretariat. “Big Red” was named one of the 2oth Century’s 50 top atheletes.
“He’s tired,” Dutrow said. “Look at my boy.” Then, directing his comments to the horse, he said, “I finally got you. I finally got you tired. Look at my little buddy. You kicked their ass, Brown.”
According to Bloodhorse.com, those are the words of trainer Rick Dutrow in the barn the evening of Big Brown’s recent Kentucky Derby victory. The big horse was tired, and rightfully so. He had just devastated the best horses his generation has to offer, all while making only his fourth start and doing it from the 20th post position.
This game was never meant to be easy. I mean, you find a horse you love, tell all your friends, and Whammo! - He draws post 20. That’s 20 of 20, the outside, 20 wide, practically in the stands. That having been said, I still think he wins in a romp. I think he’s that good. His name is Big Brown.
So, here is my take on who I believe are the main contenders for the 134th Kentucky Derby. You may take them with however many grains of salt you wish.
1. BIG BROWN 3-1 - The undefeated winner of the Florida Derby owns the highest speed figures in the field. Like Curlin before him he will attempt to win the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts. His particular lack of seasoning may not matter; he has the natural speed to overcome it. He may very well lead every step, but the important thing to remember is that he doesn’t have to. He can be rated off the lead and uncoil at any time. Saturday night, the world may look back on Derby 134 and say, “How could we have thought it would be any other way?”
2. PYRO 6-1 - There are two reasons Pyro will not be the favorite in the Derby. Big Brown is the first, and Pyro’s own dismal Blue Grass Stakes is the second. If, like me, you believe throwing out his flop on Keeneland’s Polytrack is proper, then Pyro is another standout. If it wasn’t for his loss in Lexington, he’d be co-favorite with Big Brown. In his first two starts this year, Pyro ran visually impressive, but slow races. In the Risen Star he exploded past the leaders after they set a very slow pace. That is a very difficult thing to do normally, and even more so at the Fair Grounds.
3. SMOOTH AIR 20-1 - I love this story. A 70 year old trainer has his first Derby horse, and after reporters were asking him questions outside his barn, his daughter had to explain to him that he had just held a press conference. He is old school and so are his methods. He refers to Smooth Air as his “little horse” and is happy to tell how he decides on feeding by studying his stool (the horse’s stool, that is). Probably the fittest horse in the field, he was second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby and was a full 7 1/2 lengths in front of third place.
4. TALE OF EKATI 15-1 - Winner of the Wood Memorial, trained by Derby winner Barclay Tagg, and out of a Sunday Silence mare, he could be dangerous. He seems to get into trouble, which is almost a guarantee in a 20 horse field, yet he’s a trier. He is making his third start of the year and could be sitting on a big effort.
5. DENIS OF CORK 20-1 - Probably mismanaged by his connections, he still managed to make the field. Oddly, I was not a fan of this horse until he LOST the Illinois Derby. Everyone will tell you that he is distanced challenged, but I disagree. He looks the part and is working beautifully.
6. GAYEGO 15-1 - The only horse to have adequately answered the synthetic to dirt question, and he did it stylishly. It takes a lot for me to back a California horse. I haven’t done that since Alysheba in 1987.
There’s a striking young colt who’s really getting some attention heading into this year’s Kentucky Derby. He’s a long-striding horse who has only started three times because of some nagging injuries. After his maiden win (by approximately 12 lengths), a majority interest in him was purchased for about $3.5M, with his original owners retaining about a quarter interest. After a change of trainer and jockey, he won his second start handily and dispensed with ease Grade 1 rivals in his most recent start. This colt can rate off the pace or simply run his competition into submission. His stride is so big, and he is so fast, that he often comes wide off the final turn. Questions are now floating around as to wehter it is possible to imagine a horse actually winning the Kentucky Derby with only 3 lifetime starts.
Curlin? You ask? Good guess. I could have easily written that paragraph after Curlin’s romp in the 2007 Arkansas Derby. Instead, I am writing it after Big Brown’s triumph in the 2008 Florida Derby. Starting from post 12 (which had produced exactly ZERO winners at the 1 1/8 Mile distance since Gulfstream’s reconfiguration) Big Brown broke for the lead, sailed through a 1/4 mile in 22.76 seconds, a 1/2 mile in 45 and change, 3/4ths in under 1:11, and he kept going and going and going. I, like everyone else, was waiting for him to run out of gas. He never did. The teletimer stopped just .36 of a second off the track record and the Beyer figure came back at 106. By far the fastest 2 turn Derby prep this year and a full second faster than Barbaro’s winning time in 2006.
The boards immediately lit up with people trying to tell me that I did not see what I had just seen. The track was manipulated, the trainer juiced the horse, there was a sun spot, Coke changed to Pepsi….you name it. Some people spend their entire lives telling other people how great horses AREN’T. I guess they are right more often than not, but what a sad, joyless existence. They cannot fully enjoy what I present to you now; total domination.
